Highest temperature in Toronto on May 30?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 30 May 2026, Toronto Pearson International Airport will record a daily high temperature. This market resolves based on the actual maximum temperature logged at the airport's weather station that day, with settlement determined by historical data pulled from Weather Underground. The resolution window closes at midday UTC, meaning traders must account for the full calendar day's readings across all hours before the cutoff.

May in Toronto typically sees daily highs between 18–22°C, though the range widens considerably depending on air mass positioning. Historical data from Environment and Climate Change Canada shows that late May extremes in the Greater Toronto Area have reached 28–29°C during warm air advection events, whilst cooler maritime influence can suppress highs to 12–15°C. The 0% crowd probability suggests either extreme confidence in a specific temperature band or insufficient liquidity across all outcome ranges. Traders building algorithmic models should cross-reference 30-year normals from ECCC alongside Pearson's specific microclimate effects—the airport sits near Lake Ontario, which moderates temperature swings compared to inland locations.

Seasonal weather pattern forecasts from Environment Canada and the North American Ensemble Forecast System become actionable roughly 10–14 days before the event. Upper-level ridge positioning, jet stream latitude, and Great Lakes surface temperature anomalies in late May will drive whether subtropical warmth or polar air masses dominate. Traders monitoring conditional order logic should flag early June forecasts released in mid-May; significant model consensus shifts often precede observable probability movement in temperature band markets. The settlement source's requirement to manually toggle Celsius display means programmatic data pulls must account for potential display-state inconsistencies when automating verification workflows.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket App UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket App UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket App UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.