Highest temperature in Wellington on July 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event concerns the highest temperature recorded at Wellington International Airport on 1 July 2026, a date that historically falls within New Zealand’s coldest month. Current crowd-implied probability of 0% for a “YES” outcome suggests the market expects the temperature to remain well below any threshold that would trigger a payout, likely reflecting typical midwinter conditions.

Historical data confirms July is the coldest month at Wellington International Airport, with an average high of 54°F (12.2°C) and average low of 47°F (8.3°C)[2]. Recent observations show current temperatures hovering around 15°C (59°F) with south-south-westerly winds and 72% humidity[1]. In the summer of 2025, the station reached or surpassed 25°C just once, far below the typical five days expected[6]. These patterns strongly support the 0% probability, as July 1 has never been a heatwave day in Wellington.

Traders should monitor daily weather bulletins from NIWA and Wunderground updates for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, as sudden shifts in wind direction or cloud cover could alter temperature trajectories[6]. While no specific announcements are scheduled for 1 July, dependencies include real-time sensor data from the airport’s weather station and potential anomalies in regional pressure systems. A recent NIWA report noted unusual summer variability, but midwinter conditions remain stable and predictable[6]. Programmatic approaches would involve scraping Wunderground’s hourly history API and cross-referencing with NIWA’s forecast models to detect deviations from the 12–15°C baseline.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Wellington on July 1? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket App UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.