Highest temperature in Wellington on June 25?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The real-world event hinges on the highest temperature recorded at Wellington International Airport on 25 June 2026, measured in degrees Celsius and resolved via Wunderground data. With the crowd-implied probability for a specific outcome sitting at 0%, the market currently reflects extreme uncertainty or a consensus that the target range is unlikely. This stands in stark contrast to recent comparable activity, such as the 11 June market where a 14°C maximum held a 44.5% probability, suggesting that mid-range June temperatures in Wellington are historically plausible despite the current 0% pricing. Historical averages for June at this station show daily highs dropping from 57°F to 54°F (approximately 14°C to 12°C), with overcast conditions prevailing 42% of the time, framing the 0% probability as potentially an overreaction to short-term volatility rather than a long-term climatological impossibility.

Programmatic traders should monitor the MetService NZ weather bulletins and the live Wunderground feed for the settlement window, as the resolution depends entirely on the peak temperature recorded across all times on that day. A recent MetService alert noted Wellington has already beaten its record June maximum with temperatures exceeding 19°C, indicating that extreme heat events are possible even in winter, which could invalidate the 0% assumption if the target range is near that threshold. Traders building conditional orders must watch for scheduled wind shifts and rain intensity, as the BBC Weather forecast for 25 June predicts strong south-south-westerly winds and light rain, which typically suppress temperatures. The settlement source is strictly the Wunderground daily history for NZWN, so any automated bot must parse the CSV download or API endpoint for the maximum value, ensuring dependencies on data latency are accounted for before the 12:00 UTC deadline.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Wellington on June 25? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket App UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket App UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket App UK?

Zero. Polymarket App UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.