Highest temperature in Wellington on June 4?

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Market context

Wellington Airport's daily high temperature on 4 June 2026 will be recorded and published through Weather Underground's historical data portal, with settlement determined by the maximum reading across all hours at the NZWN station. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either absent from this market or treating the outcome as predetermined, though early-stage weather markets often reflect sparse participation rather than genuine conviction about future conditions.

June falls within Wellington's late autumn period, when daily highs typically range between 10–14°C, though variability is substantial. Historical data from comparable years shows the airport station regularly records highs spanning 8–16°C during this month, with occasional outliers depending on frontal systems moving across the South Island. Traders building conditional orders or automated monitoring systems should reference the five-year average range (roughly 9–15°C) as a baseline; markets with near-zero probability often indicate thin liquidity rather than meteorological certainty, making this a calibration point for algorithmic approaches rather than a strong signal.

The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 4 June, but Weather Underground typically updates historical records with same-day highs within hours of occurrence. Traders relying on programmatic resolution checks should account for potential delays in data publication; the site's gear-icon temperature toggle requires manual verification if building automated settlement monitors. No weather alerts or unusual atmospheric patterns have been flagged for that specific date, meaning traders should treat this as a standard late-autumn day with typical Southern Hemisphere seasonal drivers.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket App UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket App UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.