World Cup: Number of Missed Penalties

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Market context

The 2026 FIFA World Cup will generate a finite number of in-play penalties, and only those taken in regular time, stoppage time or extra time count here; shootout attempts are excluded by the market rules. For a programme-driven trader, that means the clean input is official match event data rather than headline scorelines, with every awarded spot-kick needing classification as scored, saved or missed before the settlement window closes.

Historically, World Cup penalties are infrequent but not rare enough to ignore, and the relevant analogue is not shootout drama but open-play and extra-time spot-kicks. FIFA’s own records show that some elite takers have mixed conversion histories at the tournament, including Lionel Messi and Harry Kane, who both reached six World Cup penalties taken with a blend of goals, saves and a miss, while Guinness lists Asamoah Gyan as having the most World Cup penalties missed by an individual outside shoot-outs with two.[5][6] The current 4% crowd price implies a very low aggregate threshold, so a single high-penalty match, a deep knockout run with VAR-driven awards, or one early-tournament cluster can move the market materially.

For practical monitoring, the main catalysts are fixture density, referee appointments, and the tournament’s knock-out progression, because later rounds create more extra-time and higher-stakes penalty decisions. News coverage has already noted the first penalty of the 2026 World Cup being awarded and converted, which is a useful reminder that the counter can start moving immediately rather than only in the knockout stage.[2] A power-user would track official match reports and event feeds, then run simple conditional rules against cumulative “missed or saved” counts so the position updates after each match rather than waiting for daily summaries.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews World Cup: Number of Missed Penalties across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket App UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket App UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket App UK?

Zero. Polymarket App UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.