Colombia Presidential Election 1st round winner?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Colombia will hold its presidential election on 31 May 2026, with a potential runoff on 21 June if no candidate achieves an outright majority. This market resolves to the candidate receiving the most valid votes in the first round, regardless of whether they cross the 50% threshold. The settlement window closes at 16:00 ET on 31 May 2026, meaning results must be publicly confirmed within hours of polls closing for resolution to occur before the December 2026 fallback deadline.

Colombian presidential elections have historically produced first-round winners with pluralities rather than majorities. In 2022, Gustavo Petro won the runoff with 50.4% after finishing second in the first round; in 2018, Iván Duque secured 39.1% in the opening vote before winning the second round decisively. The 0% implied probability suggests the crowd is pricing near-certainty that no single candidate will dominate sufficiently to win outright on 31 May, reflecting Colombia's fragmented political landscape and the typical distribution of votes across multiple viable candidates.

Traders monitoring this market should track candidate registration deadlines (typically January–February 2026), polling aggregates from Colombian firms, and any major campaign developments affecting frontrunner consolidation. The Colombian Electoral Authority (Registraduría Nacional) publishes preliminary results within 24 hours of voting; automated feeds from credible news sources like Caracol Radio or El Tiempo will be essential for programmatic settlement verification. Conditional orders tied to first-round result announcements can capture volatility between the initial vote count and any subsequent runoff positioning.

Methodology

This page reviews Colombia Presidential Election 1st round winner? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket App UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket App UK?

Zero. Polymarket App UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket App UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.