Highest temperature in Guangzhou on June 4?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Guangzhou will experience its typical early-summer heat on 4 June 2026, with the daily maximum temperature recorded at Baiyun International Airport Station determining the settlement outcome. The city's subtropical climate produces consistent high temperatures during this period, though the exact daily peak depends on cloud cover, humidity patterns, and any passing weather systems that may suppress afternoon heating.

Historical data from Wunderground shows Guangzhou regularly records June highs between 32–35°C, with occasional peaks above 36°C during heat waves. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either awaiting resolution or treating this as a calibration exercise rather than genuine uncertainty. Comparable June days at the airport station provide a baseline: reviewing the past five years of records reveals that temperatures below 30°C are exceptionally rare, whilst readings above 38°C occur roughly once per decade. This distribution should anchor expectations for range selection.

Traders monitoring this market programmatically should track China Meteorological Administration forecasts released in the days preceding 4 June, which typically offer reliable 5–7 day outlooks for Guangzhou. Tropical systems moving northward from the South China Sea occasionally alter seasonal patterns; any typhoon activity in late May or early June could introduce cloud cover that suppresses peak temperatures. The settlement window closes at midday UTC, creating a narrow window for final adjustments once morning data confirms the trajectory toward the daily high. Wunderground's historical archive updates automatically, eliminating manual verification delays for conditional order execution.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket App UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket App UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket App UK?

Zero. Polymarket App UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.