Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 4?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 4 June 2026, the Hong Kong Observatory will record the day's highest temperature in degrees Celsius. This market resolves to whichever temperature range contains that single daily maximum reading, sourced from the Observatory's published "Daily Extract" data once finalised. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date, though resolution itself depends on the Observatory releasing official records—typically available within days of the observation period.

Hong Kong's June temperatures cluster reliably between 28–32°C, with historical daily maxima rarely exceeding 34°C during early June. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either waiting for range options to materialise or treating this as a calibration exercise against seasonal norms. Comparable June dates from the Observatory's archives show that extreme heat (above 35°C) occurs in fewer than 5% of cases; conversely, cooler readings below 27°C are equally rare. For programmatic traders, this market functions as a straightforward data-fetch exercise: the Observatory publishes structured climate data via its CIS portal, making automated settlement verification feasible once the daily extract becomes available.

Subtropical weather systems and the onset of the southwest monsoon shape early June conditions. Traders monitoring real-time synoptic charts and the Hong Kong Observatory's 9-day forecast will gain tactical advantage; significant tropical cyclone activity or unusual high-pressure systems could shift the distribution meaningfully. The Observatory updates forecasts daily, and any alerts regarding heatwaves or unusual weather patterns would serve as leading indicators for range positioning.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket App UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket App UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket App UK?

Zero. Polymarket App UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket App UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.