Highest temperature in Hong Kong on May 31?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Hong Kong's daily maximum temperature on 31 May 2026 will be recorded by the Observatory and published in its official Daily Extract dataset. The settlement hinges on a single metric: the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" figure released once meteorological observation for that date concludes. This is a straightforward factual resolution—no modelling uncertainty, no interpretation required—making it suitable for conditional orders or automated monitoring systems that track Observatory publication schedules.

May in Hong Kong typically sits in the pre-monsoon transition period, with daily maxima ranging between 28°C and 32°C depending on whether the Southwest Monsoon has established itself. Historical data from the Observatory shows 31 May readings cluster around 30–31°C, though outliers above 33°C occur roughly once per decade during early heat waves. The 0% crowd probability suggests either a technical issue with market creation or misaligned range definitions; traders should verify the specific temperature brackets offered before interpreting this signal.

Programmatic traders should monitor the Observatory's publication lag—data typically appears within 24–48 hours of the observation date, though holiday schedules occasionally extend this. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 31 May, creating a narrow window for same-day resolution if data releases early. Integrating the Observatory's API or RSS feed into conditional order logic would eliminate manual checking; the data source is stable and historically reliable, reducing execution risk compared to markets dependent on news interpretation or official announcements.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket App UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket App UK?

Zero. Polymarket App UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket App UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.