Highest temperature in London on June 2?

Market context

On 2 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at London City Airport will fall within one of several defined ranges. The settlement mechanism relies on historical weather data from Weather Underground, specifically the daily maximum temperature for that location. Traders need to verify the temperature unit setting (Celsius vs Fahrenheit) when accessing the resolution source, as the interface defaults may differ from the market's stated denomination.

London's June temperatures typically range between 18–24°C, with historical maxima occasionally exceeding 28°C during warm spells. The current 0% crowd probability suggests either extreme confidence in a specific temperature band or insufficient liquidity across the full range. Comparable June weather patterns from 2015–2024 show that temperatures above 25°C occur roughly 30–40% of the time, providing a baseline for calibrating position sizing against the implied distribution.

Traders monitoring this market should track UK Met Office forecasts released in the week preceding 2 June, as these typically carry the highest predictive value for daily maxima. Atmospheric pressure systems and jet stream positioning in late May determine whether continental warm air reaches the UK or Atlantic systems dominate. For programmatic approaches, integrating automated pulls from Weather Underground's historical API after settlement would eliminate manual verification delays, though the 12:00 UTC window requires accounting for potential data refresh lags in the underlying source.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Resolution source: This market settles from the official publication at https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC. A proposer submits the result to the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon, the two-hour challenge window opens, and the smart contract pays out in USDC.

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.