Highest temperature in NYC on June 11?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

New York City's highest temperature on 11 June 2026 will be recorded at LaGuardia Airport and resolved against historical weather data from Wunderground. The settlement window closes at midday UTC, meaning traders must account for the full diurnal cycle before resolution. This market structure requires programmatic monitoring of real-time weather feeds; automated bots tracking KLGA station data can flag threshold crossings as the day progresses, enabling conditional order placement tied to hourly temperature updates.

Historical June temperatures at LaGuardia show a median high around 79°F (26°C), with typical ranges between 72–86°F across the month. The 0% crowd probability suggests either extreme confidence in a narrow band or insufficient liquidity across all outcome ranges. Comparable markets on East Coast airports reveal that June weather prediction markets typically see meaningful probability shifts only when seasonal forecasts shift materially—a rare occurrence this far in advance. Current crowd positioning likely reflects baseline seasonal expectations rather than any specific atmospheric setup.

The National Weather Service Northeast office publishes extended forecasts roughly 8–10 days prior to the target date; traders should monitor these releases in early June for any anomalous patterns (heat domes, cold fronts) that would shift temperature distributions. Programmatic traders can integrate NWS API data feeds with conditional order logic to rebalance positions as forecast confidence increases. The Wunderground historical data endpoint remains the authoritative source, accessible via direct API queries for automated settlement verification.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in NYC on June 11? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket App UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket App UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket App UK?

Zero. Polymarket App UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket App UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.