Highest temperature in Paris on June 2?

Market context

On 2 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Paris-Le Bourget Airport will fall into one of several defined ranges. The settlement mechanism pulls historical data from Weather Underground, requiring traders to verify the Celsius reading by toggling the temperature unit setting on the platform. This creates a straightforward verification pathway: the highest daily temperature reading becomes the resolving data point, with no ambiguity around timing or location since Le Bourget is France's primary aviation weather station.

June temperatures in the Paris region typically range between 15–25°C, with occasional peaks above 25°C during warm spells. Historical June data from Le Bourget shows that temperatures exceeding 28°C occur roughly once every three to four years, whilst readings above 30°C remain uncommon but not unprecedented. The 0% crowd probability suggests either extreme confidence in a specific temperature band or insufficient liquidity across all ranges. Traders evaluating this market programmatically would benefit from accessing historical June datasets directly from Weather Underground's API to model seasonal variance and identify which temperature brackets carry genuine predictive uncertainty.

Meteorological forecasting accuracy for single-day temperature maxima degrades significantly beyond ten days. A trader monitoring this market should track European weather pattern updates from Météo-France and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) as June approaches. Spring 2026 atmospheric conditions—particularly whether Atlantic systems establish cooler patterns or high-pressure systems dominate—will determine whether June 2nd experiences typical seasonal temperatures or anomalous extremes. Real-time forecast updates typically become actionable five to seven days before the settlement date.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Resolution source: This market settles from the official publication at https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB. A proposer submits the result to the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon, the two-hour challenge window opens, and the smart contract pays out in USDC.

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.