Highest temperature in Paris on May 31?

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Market context

On 31 May 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Paris-Le Bourget Airport will fall into one of several discrete ranges. This market settles on the single daily maximum pulled from Wunderground's historical weather database for that specific station, which serves as the primary meteorological reference point for the Paris region. The settlement window closes at midday UTC, meaning traders must account for any temperature spike that occurs in the morning hours before the market locks.

Late May in the Paris basin typically sees daytime highs between 20–24°C, with occasional warm spells pushing into the upper 20s. Historical precedent matters here: the station recorded 28.9°C on 31 May 2003 during Europe's exceptional heat event, and 26.1°C on 31 May 2012. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in a scenario where temperatures remain well below historical extremes for that calendar date. Comparing this to seasonal normals and recent May performance across European stations provides calibration; Le Bourget's May average sits around 18–19°C for highs.

Traders monitoring this market should track European weather model consensus from mid-May onwards, particularly outputs from Météo-France and ECMWF. Atmospheric blocking patterns, jet stream positioning, and any Saharan dust transport events become material 7–10 days before settlement. Real-time verification requires direct access to Wunderground's historical archive; automating a check against the station's live feed on 31 May allows conditional order execution tied to threshold breaches. The gear-icon temperature toggle between Celsius and Fahrenheit is essential for avoiding settlement disputes if using third-party data feeds.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket App UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket App UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket App UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket App UK?

Zero. Polymarket App UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket App UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.