Highest temperature in Seoul on June 4?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Seoul's peak temperature on 4 June 2026 will be recorded at Incheon International Airport's official weather station and resolved against historical data via Wunderground's archive. Early June sits within Seoul's late spring period, typically characterised by warming trends ahead of the monsoon season. The 0% crowd probability suggests either extreme confidence in a specific temperature band or insufficient liquidity to establish meaningful odds across the full range.

Historical June temperatures at Incheon show considerable variance. Between 2015 and 2024, early June highs ranged from 21°C to 32°C, with median values clustering around 26–28°C. Anomalously hot years (2018, 2023) pushed into the low 30s, whilst cooler patterns occasionally suppressed readings into the low 20s. This spread indicates the market's outcome space is genuinely wide; traders building algorithmic models should weight both seasonal climatology and longer-term warming trends when calibrating their position sizing.

Traders automating this market should monitor South Korean meteorological forecasts released in late May, particularly the Korea Meteorological Administration's extended outlook. Pacific high-pressure systems and early monsoon activity represent the primary catalysts affecting June 4th conditions. Conditional orders tied to KMA announcements or regional sea-surface temperature anomalies would allow systematic exposure without manual monitoring. The Wunderground data feed updates daily, making this market suitable for bot-based settlement verification once the date passes.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Seoul on June 4? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket App UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket App UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket App UK?

Zero. Polymarket App UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket App UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.