Highest temperature in Seoul on May 31?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Seoul's maximum temperature on 31 May 2026 will be recorded at Incheon International Airport Station, the official meteorological reference point for the region. The settlement hinges on Weather Underground's historical data feed for that specific date, requiring traders to verify the data source directly rather than relying on secondary reporting. The 0% crowd probability suggests either extreme confidence in a particular temperature band or insufficient liquidity to establish meaningful pricing across the range buckets.

Historical May temperatures in Seoul cluster between 24–28°C for daily highs, though extremes have reached 31°C during early heat waves. The late May period typically marks the transition into warmer conditions ahead of the monsoon season, making outlier temperatures plausible but not dominant. Comparable years—particularly 2020 and 2023, which saw elevated spring temperatures—provide calibration points for assessing whether this year's seasonal trajectory will follow typical patterns or deviate significantly.

Traders monitoring this market should track the Korea Meteorological Administration's seasonal forecasts and any announced weather pattern shifts in late April and early May 2026. Pacific high-pressure systems and their interaction with continental air masses drive Seoul's late-spring temperatures; early indicators from atmospheric pressure anomalies in the preceding weeks will signal whether conditions favour above or below-median highs. For programmatic approaches, integrating KMA data feeds alongside Weather Underground's historical API allows conditional order logic to adjust positions as May approaches and forecast confidence increases.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket App UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket App UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket App UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket App UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.