US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 14 June 2026, the United States and Iran announced a memorandum of understanding to halt hostilities and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, committing to 60 days of talks aimed at a final nuclear deal, yet the core issue of Iran’s uranium enrichment remains unresolved[1][5]. This interim accord mirrors the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, where Iran pledged not to develop nuclear weapons but later resumed enrichment after the US withdrew in 2018[1]. Given that the current crowd-implied probability sits at 0% for a signed final instrument by August 2026, the market reflects deep scepticism that the two sides can bridge divergent demands on enriched uranium stockpiles and sanctions relief, as seen in the first day of talks where disagreements on $12bn in frozen assets and IAEA inspector access persisted[3][4].

A power-user evaluating this market programmatically should monitor scheduled technical working groups on sanctions and nuclear activities, alongside any public statements from Vice President JD Vance or Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi regarding IAEA access or asset unfreezing[3][4]. Recent reports confirm that while Vance claimed Iran consented to nuclear inspections, Iranian officials denied this within days, and the US has not confirmed the release of $12bn in frozen funds[3]. Traders must watch for announcements from the IAEA on inspector deployment timelines and any shifts in US preconditions, such as the May 2026 demands for Iran to deliver 400kg of enriched uranium to the US, which remain unmet[5]. The settlement window closing on 31 August 2026 leaves little time for a breakthrough, especially with unresolved details on uranium reserves and phased sanctions relief[5].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket App UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.