Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 18?

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Market context

Hong Kong's daily maximum temperature on 18 June 2026 will be recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory and published in their Daily Extract climate data. The settlement hinges on the Observatory's official "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" figure, measured to one decimal place. This date falls within Hong Kong's early summer monsoon season, when temperatures typically range between 28–34°C, though heat waves can push readings above 35°C.

Historical June records show Hong Kong's daily maxima cluster around 31–33°C under normal conditions, with extremes reaching 36–37°C during anomalous heat events. The 0% crowd probability suggests either insufficient liquidity or market participants treating this as a calibration exercise rather than a genuine forecast. Comparable early-summer dates from prior years provide the baseline: the Observatory's archives reveal June 18 historically sits near the seasonal mean, making mid-range temperature brackets (31–33°C) statistically more probable than outlier scenarios.

For programmatic traders, the critical dependency is the Observatory's publication lag. Data typically appears 1–2 days after the settlement window closes on 18 June at 12:00 UTC, meaning automated resolution feeds must account for delayed finalisation. Conditional orders tied to weather alerts from the Hong Kong Meteorological Department or upstream tropical cyclone warnings could serve as leading indicators; the Observatory publishes advisories separately from climate records. Traders building bots should parse the Daily Extract CSV directly rather than relying on secondary weather APIs, as the Observatory's official figure is the sole resolution source.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 18? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket App UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket App UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket App UK?

Zero. Polymarket App UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket App UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.