# of views of next MrBeast video on day 1?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

MrBeast's next YouTube upload will accumulate a measurable view count within its first 24 hours. The market brackets this outcome into discrete ranges, with settlement contingent on YouTube's public view counter at the 24-hour mark. If no video materialises by 30 June 2026, the market defaults to the lowest bracket. The 76% implied probability suggests traders expect a video release within the settlement window and anticipate substantial day-one engagement.

Historical context shows MrBeast's recent uploads consistently exceed 50 million views in 24 hours. His November 2024 video "I Gave Away $1,000,000" reached approximately 80 million views in the opening day; comparable high-production releases from his channel typically land between 60–100 million views within this timeframe. Seasonal variation matters—uploads during weekends and holidays tend toward higher velocity. The current probability weighting reflects confidence in both video publication and performance within established benchmarks rather than an outlier scenario.

Traders monitoring this market should track MrBeast's production schedule and any public announcements regarding upload timing. Recent content cycles suggest uploads occur roughly weekly, though gaps can extend to two weeks during production delays. Programmatic approaches would benefit from automated YouTube API polling to capture view counts at precise 24-hour intervals, accounting for potential display lag in YouTube's public counter. Regional view distribution and bot-filtering adjustments by YouTube's systems can create minor variance in reported figures, so cross-referencing multiple data points strengthens resolution confidence.

Methodology

This page reviews # of views of next MrBeast video on day 1? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket App UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket App UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket App UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.