How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The Federal Reserve will conduct eight regularly scheduled FOMC meetings throughout 2026, with the final decision in December. This market quantifies the total number of 25 basis point rate cuts the Fed will implement across those meetings, plus any emergency cuts outside the standard calendar. A 50 basis point reduction counts as two cuts; a 75 basis point move counts as three. The resolution mechanism includes early closure if the mathematical threshold becomes unachievable—for instance, if seven cuts have already occurred by November, the market resolves early since eight cuts would be the maximum possible outcome.

The Fed's 2025 trajectory provides the primary reference frame. Having begun cutting in September 2024 after holding rates at 5.25–5.50 per cent, the central bank's path through 2025 will establish momentum and inflation expectations heading into 2026. Historical precedent shows that sustained cutting cycles typically average four to six cuts annually once initiated, though the 2020–2021 emergency cuts and the 2022–2023 hiking cycle both deviated sharply from norms. The current crowd probability of 69 per cent YES suggests traders expect a meaningful number of cuts, though consensus remains uncertain on whether that means three, four, five or more.

Traders monitoring this market should track monthly PCE inflation releases, employment reports, and Fed communications closely. The December 2025 FOMC decision will be particularly influential, signalling the Fed's confidence in disinflation and economic resilience. Programmatically, conditional order logic could trigger position adjustments following each FOMC announcement once actual cuts are confirmed, allowing automated rebalancing as the cumulative total becomes clearer throughout the year.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket App UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket App UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket App UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket App UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.