NY-12 Democratic Primary Winner

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The real-world event is the Democratic primary for New York’s 12th Congressional District, held on 23 June 2026, to select the nominee for the 2026 House midterm. Micah Lasher is the leading candidate, with Alex Bores, George Conway, Jack Schlossberg and others also contesting. The current crowd-implied probability of 1% YES suggests the market views Lasher’s nomination as highly unlikely, despite his prominence.

Historically, low-probability primary outcomes in tight urban districts often reflect late-stage field shifts or undisclosed internal party dynamics. In comparable 2024 New York primaries, candidates with under 5% implied odds occasionally surged after endorsement announcements or withdrawal of rivals. Programmatic traders should monitor conditional order books for sudden liquidity spikes, which often precede official shifts. A trader building a bot would weight real-time donation data and local endorsement feeds more heavily than static polling.

Key catalysts include the final candidate list confirmation, any withdrawal notices before 23 June, and early endorsement waves from Democratic leaders. The NYC Board of Elections released a tentative contest list on 7 May, but changes remain possible [3]. Recent polling shows Republicans entering the midterms with a 217–212 House majority, intensifying pressure on Democratic unity [5]. Traders should watch for updates from democrats.org and FEC campaign finance filings, as sudden fundraising surges often correlate with nomination momentum [6]. Conditional orders tied to these events can capture asymmetric value if the 1% probability misprices emerging dynamics.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket App UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket App UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket App UK?

Zero. Polymarket App UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.