US-Iran deal text released by 2026?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The US and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement on 14 June 2026, with a formal signing ceremony scheduled for 19 June. This market settles affirmatively if any substantive portion of the agreement text enters public circulation by 1 July 2026. The 83% crowd probability reflects confidence that disclosure will occur within the fortnight following the signing ceremony, though the threshold is notably permissive—"any portion" and "widely available" are deliberately broad conditions rather than requiring full transparency or official publication.

Historical precedent suggests mixed outcomes. The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in 2015 saw full text release within weeks of signature, with both the US State Department and UN publishing complete documentation. Conversely, the Trump administration's 2020 agreements with Gulf states (Abraham Accords) released only summary documents initially, with full legal texts trickling out over months through congressional disclosures and leaked channels. The current agreement's disclosure timeline will likely depend on whether either party faces domestic political pressure to justify terms publicly, and whether congressional or parliamentary review mechanisms trigger mandatory filing requirements.

Traders should monitor State Department briefings and Iranian government statements scheduled immediately after the 19 June signing. Congressional notification requirements under the Case-Nehlen Act typically mandate disclosure within 15 days of a significant agreement, creating a hard deadline around 4 July. Watch for leaks to major outlets (Reuters, AP, Financial Times) reporting specific clauses, which would satisfy the "widely available" criterion even absent official release. Conditional orders keyed to news-wire keywords around sanctions relief, nuclear inspections, or asset unfreezing could capture volatility shifts as partial information surfaces.

Methodology

We track US-Iran deal text released by 2026? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket App UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket App UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.