France vs. Iraq - More Markets

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Market context

The underlying real-world event is the FIFA World Cup match between France and Iraq, scheduled for 5:00 PM ET on 22 June 2026 at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia. This fixture determines the outcome of a prediction market where the crowd currently implies a 72% probability that France will win.

Historically, France’s dominance in World Cup play frames how to interpret this high probability. France defeated Brazil 3–0 in the 1998 final, securing their first title on home soil with goals from Zidane and Petit[1]. In head-to-head records against Iraq, France has won three of five previous encounters, with the other two ending in draws[9]. Recent form also supports the market view: France won four of their last five matches before a narrow friendly loss to Ivory Coast[10]. For a power-user building conditional order bots, this historical weight and current momentum justify programming a high-confidence long position on France.

Traders should monitor final lineups and any late injury announcements before the 21:00 UTC settlement window. ESPN lists France’s moneyline at –700, reflecting strong bookmaker confidence, while Iraq sits at +3000[2]. The over/under is set at 3.5 goals, with odds slightly favouring the over[3]. A recent Goal.com preview notes France’s attacking consistency, which could drive goal volume if Iraq’s defence falters early[10]. Programmatically, a trader might set a conditional order to execute only if France’s starting XI includes their top three strikers, ensuring the bot aligns with the team’s offensive catalysts.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket App UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket App UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.