Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire - Exact Score

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Germany face Côte d’Ivoire in a World Cup group-stage match, and the market settles on the exact score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time only, so extra time and penalties are irrelevant. With crowd-implied probability at 4%, the price is already treating a specific scoreline as a low-frequency outcome rather than a base-case result, which is typical for exact-score books where the probability mass is spread across several common results and “Any Other Score” often absorbs the rest. [2][4]

For historical framing, exact-score markets are best read through team strength and score distribution rather than outright win probability. Germany are listed as clear favourites in the match odds on ESPN, with a strong goal expectation implied by the low price on the over 2.5 line, which usually shifts attention towards 1-0, 2-0, 2-1, 3-0 and similar clusters rather than a single nailed-on result. Germany’s only prior senior World Cup meeting with Côte d’Ivoire is limited, so programmatic models would lean more on recent team form, goal rates and tournament context than on head-to-head history. [2][8]

The main catalysts are lineup confirmation, any late injury or rotation news, and the live market’s reaction to kick-off dynamics such as early pressure, card risk and set-piece volume. FIFA’s match-centre confirms the fixture in the first stage, while ESPN’s listing shows the scheduled 20:00 UTC start, which means automated traders can anchor conditional orders around team-news windows and pre-match liquidity changes before settlement begins. If a bot is mapping this market, the practical inputs are expected goals, draw frequency, and whether one side is likely to protect a lead or chase the game, because those factors materially affect exact-score tails more than the outright winner. [2][4]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire - Exact Score on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket App UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket App UK?

Zero. Polymarket App UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket App UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.