Sweden vs. Tunisia - Exact Score

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Market context

Sweden and Tunisia will meet in the group stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup on 14 June at 10:00 PM ET. This market resolves on the exact final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalties. The 7% implied probability reflects the specificity required: bettors must predict not just a winner but the precise scoreline from a discrete set of listed outcomes, with any unlisted result triggering "Any Other Score" settlement.

Historical precedent suggests exact-score markets in World Cup group matches typically concentrate probability across a narrow band of outcomes. Sweden–Tunisia represents a matchup between a Nordic side with consistent qualification pedigree and a North African team with variable tournament performance. In their last competitive meeting (2018 World Cup group stage), Sweden won 1–0. Group-stage matches between similarly-ranked opponents cluster around low-scoring results; the modal outcomes across comparable fixtures tend toward 1–0, 1–1, and 2–0 scorelines. The 7% probability for this specific outcome implies the listed score carries moderate rarity—likely a higher-scoring or less conventional result.

Traders should monitor squad announcements and injury bulletins through early June, particularly regarding key attacking players for both nations. Sweden's recent Nations League and qualifying campaign form will signal offensive capability; Tunisia's preparation intensity matters given their group-stage elimination history. Fixture congestion in the days preceding 14 June could affect team rotation and fatigue levels. Conditional order functionality becomes valuable here: setting triggers based on team news releases or competing group results (which may influence tactical approach) allows systematic position adjustment without manual monitoring.

Methodology

This page reviews Sweden vs. Tunisia - Exact Score across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket App UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket App UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket App UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.