Türkiye vs. Paraguay - Exact Score

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Türkiye and Paraguay meet in a FIFA World Cup group-stage match at Levi’s Stadium, with settlement based only on the score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time; extra time and penalties do not count for this market.[3][5] The current crowd-implied 8% for **Any Other Score** suggests the market is pricing a fairly concentrated set of common scorelines rather than a broad scatter of outcomes, which is consistent with how exact-score books and prediction markets usually cluster around low totals and narrow margins in World Cup group play.[1][2]

For comparison, the live market prices on the match point to a relatively tight game rather than a one-sided blowout, with moneyline and total goals lines implying modest separation and a low-to-mid scoring environment.[1][2] Türkiye’s World Cup history is limited compared with the established tournament regulars, having qualified only a few times and last reaching the finals in 2026, while Paraguay also comes in as a side whose results at this level tend to hinge on defensive structure and set-piece efficiency rather than high-tempo exchanges.[7][4] That matters for programmatic trading because exact-score markets usually respond most to shifts in expected goal totals and win probability, not to narrative alone.[1][2]

The main catalysts are team sheets, any late injury or suspension news, and whether the match actually kicks off on schedule, because postponement keeps the market open until completion under the stated rules.[5] The market currently sits inside the tournament window for a scheduled June 19 kick-off, so automated monitoring should watch official FIFA match-centre updates and live odds screens for any change in line-up or venue timing that could move the score distribution before kick-off.[5][1]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket App UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket App UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket App UK?

Zero. Polymarket App UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.