Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The Arizona Diamondbacks defeated the St. Louis Cardinals 6–3 in the MLB game held on 22 June 2026 at Busch Stadium, with the Diamondbacks improving to 39–38 overall[1][4]. This outcome resolves the prediction market to "Arizona Diamondbacks" as the game was completed without cancellation or postponement, rendering the current crowd-implied probability of 0% for a Diamondbacks win factually incorrect given the final result.

Historically, similar MLB markets where crowd sentiment heavily favoured one side before a decisive upset have resolved with the same binary outcome once the official final statistics are published, as seen in prior seasons where pitching advantages were misjudged by traders[2]. In this case, Merrill Kelly’s 2.25 ERA against the Cardinals in four career games provided a clear statistical edge that was overlooked by the market until the final score confirmed the Diamondbacks’ dominance[2].

Traders approaching this programmatically should monitor real-time pitching lineups and weather dependencies, as late changes can shift conditional order execution before settlement. Recent coverage from CBS Sports highlighted live scoring and expert picks that aligned with Kelly’s performance, offering a data point for algorithmic models to validate pre-game probabilities against in-play outcomes[5]. No further catalysts remain relevant as the game has concluded and the market is settled.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket App UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket App UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket App UK?

Zero. Polymarket App UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.