Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The Cleveland Guardians and Chicago White Sox played their MLB matchup on 23 June 2026 at Rate Field in Chicago, with the game concluding in a White Sox victory. This outcome directly determines the resolution of the prediction market, which currently shows a 0% probability for the Guardians winning, reflecting the settled result where the White Sox secured the win.

Historically, when a team wins a game by a narrow margin such as the White Sox’s 6–5 victory over the Guardians on 22 June 2026, markets often display extreme skew toward the winner if the result is confirmed early[4]. In comparable MLB cases, once a final score is official, conditional probabilities collapse to 0% or 100% within minutes, as traders update positions based on verified statistics rather than live speculation[1]. Programmatic traders using bots or conditional orders would have executed sell commands immediately upon the final score confirmation, locking in the 0% YES probability for the Guardians.

Key catalysts for traders include the official final statistics release from MLB and any post-game announcements regarding player performance or injuries that could affect future markets[2]. A recent ESPN report confirmed Sam Antonacci’s walk-off two-run single as the decisive moment in the White Sox’s 6–5 win, a detail that would trigger automated trading scripts to adjust probabilities instantly[4]. Traders monitoring schedule dependencies should note that if a game were postponed, the market would remain open until completion, but cancellation or a tie would resolve the market at 50–50, a scenario unlikely given the confirmed result.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket App UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket App UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket App UK?

Zero. Polymarket App UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.