Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The Chicago White Sox are at Comerica Park to play the Detroit Tigers in a June 21 afternoon game, with the market currently pricing a White Sox win at just 5% implied probability. That is far below the pre-game moneyline context in which Detroit was listed around -120 to -160 and Chicago around +100 to +132, so the market is effectively treating a White Sox result as a longshot rather than a normal upset price.[1][2][3]

For readers building a rules-based workflow, this is the kind of market where the main input is not opinion but state detection: confirm line-up publication, check whether the game has started, and monitor whether the official final score posts before the settlement window closes. Recent previews describe Detroit as the home side and note the game is scheduled for 1:40pm EDT, while the live game pages show the event as part of the standard MLB scoreboard feed, which is the sort of source a bot would poll before triggering any conditional order or copy-trade action.[5][8]

The historical frame is straightforward: a 5% price usually reflects a heavy favourite or a late-stage information edge, not a balanced contest. In comparable MLB matchups, short prices on one team typically compress only when the underlying moneyline is already well one-sided, and the main catalyst for a sharp move is a credible late change such as a pitching swap, weather delay, or lineup scratch; absent that, the market generally tracks the pre-game betting range and the live score state rather than public sentiment.[1][2][4]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket App UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket App UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket App UK?

Zero. Polymarket App UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.