Detroit Tigers vs. New York Yankees

Platform comparison

Market context

The Detroit Tigers face the New York Yankees tonight at Yankee Stadium in a 7:05pm ET MLB matchup, with the Tigers needing to win to resolve the market favourably. Current crowd-implied probability sits at 45% for the Tigers, suggesting the Yankees are the favoured side, a stance mirrored by moneyline odds where Detroit is the underdog at +120 and New York plays at -142[1]. Historical data from numberNumber indicates a 55.8% win probability for the Yankees, aligning closely with the market’s pricing and reinforcing the view that the home side holds a tangible edge in this contest[1].

Programmatic traders should monitor real-time pitching lineups and bullpen dependency alerts, as late starter changes can shift conditional order execution significantly. The Yankees’ season record of 48-34 and strong home form (22-15) contrast with the Tigers’ 35-49 record and poor away performance (12-28), providing a statistical backbone for algorithmic models[3]. Recent previews confirm the Yankees’ offensive strength, with 121 home runs compared to the Tigers’ 95, a key catalyst for automated betting strategies that weigh run production metrics[3][4]. Traders must also watch for postponement notices, as unresolved games keep the market open until completion, affecting settlement timing for conditional orders[1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket App UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket App UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.