San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The San Francisco Giants are visiting the Miami Marlins at loanDepot park for a game scheduled on 19 June at 7:10 pm ET, and the market’s 0% YES price implies the crowd has effectively written off a Giants win. ESPN listed San Francisco at 31–43 and Miami at 37–38 before first pitch, so the raw team records gave the Marlins the clearer baseline edge even before adjusting for venue and day-to-day lineup news.[3][4]

For a programmatic approach, this is the sort of spot where a bot would treat the live feed as the source of truth and watch for state changes rather than static pre-game opinion. MLB’s game preview highlighted a few form markers that can matter in short-horizon models, including Bryce Eldridge’s 22-game on-base streak for San Francisco and Otto Lopez’s .349 batting average with a .893 OPS for Miami, which are the kind of player-level inputs that can move an in-game price more than the opening number.[6] Recent highlights and box-score coverage also confirm the game has already been played, so any open settlement logic would now hinge on the official final result or an exception such as postponement, cancellation, or tie under the market rules.[2][7]

A trader watching conditional orders would mainly care about the schedule and completion status: the event is listed as a three-game series in Miami, with this game one of the set pieces, and ticketing listings still reflect the original June 19 slot.[1][8] If there were a delay, make-up date, or suspended-game scenario, the market description says it remains open until completion, while a cancellation with no make-up or a tie resolves 50-50, so automation should key off the league’s final official game status rather than the published start time alone.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket App UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket App UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.