Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The Cleveland Guardians face the Houston Astros in a pivotal MLB matchup scheduled for 2:10 PM ET on 21 June, with the Guardians currently favoured to win the game. The crowd-implied probability of 6% for a Guardians victory appears starkly low given their recent dominance, as they have won both of their last two encounters against the Astros in Cleveland, including a 41–36 final on 20 June[1]. Historically, these teams have met 15 times over the last three seasons, with Houston holding a slight edge at 10–5, yet the Guardians’ current form and first-place standing in the AL Central (41–36) contrast sharply with the Astros’ fourth-place position (36–42)[3][7].

For a trader approaching this programmatically, the key catalysts are the Guardians’ pitching rotation and the Astros’ recent offensive slumps, which should be monitored via live score feeds and pre-game lineup announcements. Bazzana’s four-hit performance in the previous game signals strong Guardians batting momentum, while the Astros’ 2–1 season record against the Guardians suggests a competitive but inconsistent series[7][8]. Traders should watch for any injury updates or weather dependencies before the settlement window closes on 28 June, as these factors could shift the implied probability significantly from its current 6% baseline.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket App UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket App UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.