Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The Detroit Tigers travel to Houston for a regular-season matchup against the Astros on 16 June at 8:10PM ET. Resolution occurs based on official MLB final statistics, with the settlement window closing on 24 June. The current crowd-implied probability of 40% for a Tigers victory reflects their standing as the away side against a division rival with established home-field advantage metrics.

Historical matchup data between these franchises shows the Astros have maintained a winning record in recent seasons, though the Tigers' 2024 roster composition differs materially from prior years. When evaluating comparable June regular-season games between AL Central and AL West opponents, away-team win probabilities typically range between 35–45% depending on pitching matchups and recent form. The 40% figure sits within this band, suggesting the market has priced in baseline travel disadvantage without substantial adjustment for team-specific factors.

Traders monitoring this market programmatically should track starting pitcher announcements—typically confirmed 48–72 hours before game time—as these drive material probability shifts in baseball markets. Recent injury reports affecting either roster's key position players or relief depth will influence conditional order execution. The Astros' home record through early June and the Tigers' recent performance trajectory against comparable opponents serve as useful reference points for assessing whether the current probability reflects available information or contains exploitable gaps. Weather conditions at Minute Maid Park on game day may also trigger late adjustments, particularly regarding over-under correlations if using hedging strategies across related markets.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket App UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket App UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.