New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The New York Mets are at Citizens Bank Park to face the Philadelphia Phillies in a divisional MLB game, and the current crowd-implied **45% YES** sits below the market’s own recent pricing cues. Bookmakers and forecast pages have the Mets priced around -145 to -185 and the Phillies around +125 to +152, which implies the road side is close to a coin flip but still a modest underdog in several models.[1][2]

For a trader reading this programmatically, the key comparison is not the headline probability alone but how it moves against the live moneyline, starting-pitcher information, and whether the game reaches extra innings or is rescheduled. The two clubs entered with the Phillies stronger on the season record, 40-35 versus 34-41, while ESPN’s team splits show Philadelphia with a better home profile and a higher slugging percentage, which helps explain why a Mets win would need either pitching edge, bullpen advantage, or late-game variance to clear the market.[3]

The main catalysts are the official line-up and starter confirmations, any late scratch, and the game status itself; if postponed, the market stays open until completion, while a cancellation or tie resolves 50-50. Because the settlement window runs through 2026-06-28T23:20:00Z, a bot or conditional-order setup should watch for the MLB game feed, the final box score, and any schedule change on the league or team schedule pages rather than relying only on pre-game preview odds.[1][3][8]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket App UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket App UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.