San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The San Francisco Giants are facing the Miami Marlins in Miami, with the market set to resolve on the official final result rather than on in-game state or public win probability. In a programmatic workflow, the cleanest way to treat this kind of market is as a simple binary event keyed to the completed MLB box score, with postponement and cancellation logic handled separately from the main win/lose branch. [2][5]

A 6% YES price implies the Giants are being treated as a longshot, which is consistent with the immediate form signal from the previous night: Miami beat San Francisco 6-3 on 20 June, with Max Meyer earning the win and the Marlins extending a strong run through the matchup. MLB’s preview for the rematch also highlighted Logan Webb’s recent run of seven-inning, one-run-or-better outings, so the market is effectively weighing a Giants starter with favourable recent shape against a Marlins side that has already taken the first game. [7][3]

For traders using bots, copy-trading, or conditional orders, the main catalysts are the confirmed line-up, any late pitcher change, and whether the game stays on schedule through first pitch, because a postponement keeps the market live until the game is completed. ESPN’s game listing and MLB’s preview both show the scheduled 1:40 pm ET start, which matters for automation rules that trigger around line-up lock, but the resolution still depends only on the final official result, not on live scoring snapshots. [2][3][5]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket App UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket App UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.