UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims)

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Allan Nascimento meets Mitch Raposo in a flyweight prelim on the UFC Fight Night card in Las Vegas, with the bout having already been shifted once after Raposo’s illness forced it off the original Winnipeg slate. That matters for a programme or bot tracking the market, because late venue changes usually raise the importance of official bout status, weigh-in confirmation, and any last-minute medical updates before settlement.

A 30% YES price implies the market is leaning against Nascimento, but not decisively so. In practical terms, that kind of level is often where traders use conditional orders around fight-week signals rather than taking a static view, since a single official UFC update can change the resolution path far more than subjective form opinions. Nascimento is the more established name on paper, while Raposo has the shorter UFC profile, so the current pricing reads as a modest underdog position for Nascimento rather than a long-shot.

For tooling, the key catalysts are simple to automate: official UFC bout announcements, weigh-in outcomes, and any cancellation or postponement notices before the settlement window closes on 21 June 2026 at 03:59:59.999 UTC. The UFC’s own updates confirmed the illness-related move to this card, and independent listings have continued to show the fight on the June 20 prelims slate, so a live tracker should watch for any final card reshuffle, medical scratch, or no-contest scenario, because those would push the market to 50-50 under the rules.[2][3][9]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket App UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket App UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket App UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.