2026 U.S. Open: To Make the Cut

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The 2026 U.S. Open cut is decided after 36 holes at Shinnecock Hills, with the top 60 players and ties advancing to the weekend. The current read from Friday’s play is that the cut has already settled at **+4**, with 72 players making it through and 84 missing out, which matters for any programmatic approach because the market only resolves **Yes** if the named player is inside that threshold at the official cut. [1][3][7]

For historical framing, Shinnecock has a reputation for a stern cut line: the 2018 U.S. Open at the same venue finished at **+8**, while last year’s Oakmont cut was **+7**. That makes a 0% crowd-implied price easier to interpret as a terminally bad spot for the specific entrant, or as a market already anticipating a result that has effectively been decided by the second-round leaderboard rather than by a late price drift. [1][4]

A trader watching this through apps, bots or conditional orders would focus on the official leaderboard, cut-line trackers and any scoring corrections, because a player’s fate depends on the final 36-hole classification rather than the live score alone. The practical catalyst is whether the US Open confirms the cut at the published threshold and whether any scorecard review or rules ruling changes the top-60-and-ties list; the USGA’s championship coverage and live reporting are the primary sources to monitor for those updates. [5][7][1]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track 2026 U.S. Open: To Make the Cut on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket App UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket App UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.