Highest temperature in Chengdu on June 20?

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Market context

Chengdu’s airport station is typically warm and humid in June, with average daytime highs around 28–30°C and only limited day-to-day movement in the monthly mean, but the distribution still allows short hot spells into the mid-to-high 30s Celsius.[1][2][3] For a market that settles on the *highest* temperature of the day at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, a programmatic approach would usually map the likely bucket not from the average high, but from the upper tail of the historical daily range and any intraday heat spike captured by the station feed.[1][5]

Recent comparable pricing on Polymarket’s neighbouring Chengdu temperature market for 19 June clustered overwhelmingly around 34°C, with only a small tail above that, which is consistent with the station’s normal June envelope rather than an exceptional heatwave.[4] That kind of prior suggests a 0% crowd-implied chance can reflect either stale liquidity or an assumption that the day will finish in a low-probability bucket, so a trader using bots or conditional orders would usually watch the live forecast range against the market’s exact temperature bins and compare it with the airport station’s official history page as the resolution source.[4][5]

The main catalysts are the local forecast trend, any late-week warm-up or monsoon-style rain pattern that suppresses highs, and whether a broader regional heat ridge builds over Sichuan before midday UTC, when the settlement window closes.[1][2][6] Because the market resolves on the single highest reading at the airport station rather than a citywide average, a trader evaluating this programmatically would pay attention to hour-by-hour temperature curves, cloud cover, rain chances, and whether the station is likely to briefly touch the next bucket even if the afternoon is unsettled.[2][3][5]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Chengdu on June 20? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket App UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket App UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket App UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket App UK?

Zero. Polymarket App UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.