Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event in question is the peak daily temperature recorded at Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport on 1 July 2026, measured in degrees Celsius. This specific date falls within Guangzhou’s hottest month, where historical data shows daily highs typically cluster around 33°C to 36°C, rarely dipping below 29°C or exceeding 39°C. The market currently assigns a 0% probability to the “YES” outcome for any temperature below 35°C, implying traders expect the peak to land firmly in the upper range. Historical precedent supports this: on 1 July 2004, Guangzhou hit 39.1°C, its highest ever recorded temperature, while recent years show July averaging 33°C with frequent spikes to 36°C[2][4][7].

For a power-user approaching this programmatically, the key catalysts are regional heatwave announcements and monsoon dependency schedules, which directly influence cloud cover and precipitation. A trader should monitor the China Meteorological Administration’s weekly heatwave bulletins and the South China Sea monsoon progression reports, as delayed rainfall often correlates with higher peak temperatures. Recent data confirms China experienced its hottest July on record in 2024, with average temperatures reaching 23.21°C, suggesting a persistent warming trend that could elevate 2026’s peak[3][6]. Programmatically, one would feed Wunderground’s historical daily data into a regression model, weighting recent heat anomalies against monsoon timing to forecast the 1 July peak with precision[5].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 1? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket App UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.