Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event is the highest daily temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory on 1 July 2026, measured in degrees Celsius to one decimal place. This market resolves only once the official "Daily Extract" is finalized, meaning no prediction can settle until the data is published by the observatory.

Historically, July is Hong Kong’s hottest month, with the highest monthly mean maximum temperature of 32.9°C recorded in July 2007[5]. Recent forecasts for July 2026 show daily highs ranging from 85°F to 93°F (approximately 29.4°C to 33.9°C), with an average high of 90°F (32.2°C)[3]. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for hitting 33°C appears inconsistent with these figures, especially given the sharp overnight repricing to 54.5% for the 33°C outcome on another platform[1].

Traders should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory’s climatological updates and the release schedule for the "Daily Extract" on 1 July, as settlement depends entirely on this dependency[9]. A recent report noted July was the city’s hottest month on record, with the most hot nights and days since 1884[2]. Programmatically, a bot would track the observatory’s API for the "Absolute Daily Max" value and trigger conditional orders once the threshold is breached, avoiding manual latency. The key catalyst is the official publication time, which dictates when the market can resolve.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket App UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket App UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.