Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 17?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 17 June 2026, the Hong Kong Observatory will record the day's highest temperature in degrees Celsius. This market resolves to whichever temperature band contains that single daily maximum reading, published in the Observatory's official Daily Extract once the meteorological day closes and data validation completes.

Historical June temperatures in Hong Kong show a tight clustering around 31–33°C for daily maxima, with occasional excursions to 34–35°C during early-summer heat waves. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either awaiting range options to appear or treating this as a calibration exercise rather than a live forecast. Comparable June markets from prior years reveal that mid-range bands (31–32°C) capture roughly 60% of outcomes, whilst extreme ranges above 35°C occur in fewer than 15% of cases. The Observatory's published climate normals for June indicate a mean daily maximum of 31.2°C, providing a statistical anchor for programmatic trading strategies that rely on historical distributions.

Traders monitoring this market should track the Hong Kong Observatory's seasonal forecasts and any tropical cyclone advisories issued in early June 2026, as these directly influence temperature trajectories. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on the resolution date, but the Observatory typically publishes Daily Extract data within 24–48 hours thereafter. Automated systems can subscribe to the Observatory's data feed or parse the HTML Daily Extract tables directly; conditional orders tied to published Observatory readings will execute once official figures become available, eliminating manual settlement disputes.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 17? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket App UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket App UK?

Zero. Polymarket App UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.