Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 20?

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Market context

The real-world event is the peak daily temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory on 20 June 2026, measured in degrees Celsius to one decimal place. This single data point will determine the market outcome, resolving only once the official “Daily Extract” is finalized. With the crowd-implied probability of a specific high range sitting at 0%, the market currently reflects extreme uncertainty or a belief that the threshold is unlikely to be breached, though historical data suggests June in Hong Kong is consistently hot.

Historical June records show the highest monthly mean maximum temperature reached 32.4°C in 2016, with 2015 nearly matching at 32.3°C[1]. More recently, 2025 set a new absolute maximum for June at 35.6°C on 10 June, levelling the 1963 record[3][5]. A trader approaching this programmatically would model the probability distribution using these extremes, noting that daily highs often exceed 34°C during heatwaves, as seen in 2025 when temperatures hit 34.6°C on the year’s hottest day[4]. The 0% probability may stem from a mispriced threshold rather than a lack of heat potential.

Key catalysts include the Hong Kong Observatory’s extreme heat warnings and the timing of the “Daily Extract” publication, which dictates settlement[6]. Traders should monitor real-time weather bulletins, such as the recent SCMP report confirming temperatures over 35°C during an extreme heat event, which matches the 2025 peak[8]. Programmatically, one would set conditional orders triggered by the Observatory’s official alerts, ensuring execution before the 12:00 UTC settlement window on 20 June 2026. Dependencies include data finalisation delays, which could postpone resolution if the extract is not released promptly.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket App UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket App UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket App UK?

Zero. Polymarket App UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.