Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 26?

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Market context

On 26 June 2026, Hong Kong will record its daily maximum temperature, a real-world metric that determines the outcome of a prediction market resolving to the Celsius range containing the highest reading from the Hong Kong Observatory. The market currently shows a 0% probability for the "YES" outcome, yet live trading data indicates the frontrunner is 31°C at 54%, with 32°C trailing at 40%, suggesting the crowd-implied probability figure is either a snapshot error or refers to a specific binary condition not yet active in the main order book[1].

Historical context frames this probability: June 2025 saw a record peak of 35.6°C on 10 June, while the seasonal forecast for June–August 2026 predicts above-normal temperatures across Hong Kong[5][9]. The average high for June typically sits around 31°C, but recent warnings of extreme heat reaching 35°C in urban areas demonstrate the volatility traders must account for when evaluating the 31°C versus 32°C split[8]. Programmatically, a power-user would script a bot to monitor the "Daily Extract" for the "Absolute Daily Max" value, triggering conditional orders once the data is finalized in the official repository[1].

Traders should watch the Hong Kong Observatory’s seasonal updates and any typhoon advisories, as these act as primary catalysts for temperature deviations. The forecast notes normal to below-normal rainfall, which could amplify heat retention, while the ENSO status influences the climate models driving these projections[5]. A recent Instagram alert from the Observatory confirmed extreme heat warnings for Friday, with urban temperatures reaching 35°C, providing a tangible benchmark for the upcoming resolution[8]. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 26 June, requiring automated systems to fetch the finalized data point precisely before the deadline to avoid execution failure.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 26? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket App UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket App UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket App UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket App UK?

Zero. Polymarket App UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.