Highest temperature in NYC on June 22?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying event is the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 22 June 2026, which will resolve this market to a specific Fahrenheit range. Historical climate normals for LaGuardia in mid-June show a maximum of 83°F, with recent daily highs clustering between 72°F and 75°F[3][5]. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for the "YES" outcome appears to reference a misaligned binary question, as the frontrunner outcome is actually 72–73°F at 97% probability, suggesting the market expects a cool day consistent with the historic average of 70.3°F for June[1][10]. This high confidence in the 72–73°F range frames the current odds as a reflection of stable, non-extreme weather patterns rather than an anomaly.

For a trader approaching this programmatically, the primary catalyst is the real-time weather feed from Wunderground, which serves as the definitive resolution source[4]. One must monitor the LaGuardia station’s hourly updates on 22 June, as any deviation above 75°F would shift odds toward the 74–75°F range, currently at 2%[1]. Recent forecasts for June 2026 indicate daily highs ranging from 75°F to 88°F, meaning a sudden heat spike remains a plausible, albeit low-probability, dependency[5]. A power-user should script a conditional order that triggers only if Wunderground’s live data exceeds 74°F before the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 22 June, ensuring execution aligns with the actual resolution data rather than speculative models.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket App UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket App UK?

Zero. Polymarket App UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.