Highest temperature in Seoul on June 20?

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Market context

The real-world event is the highest temperature recorded at Incheon Intl Airport Station on 20 June 2026, which means traders should think in terms of the day’s actual peak reading rather than a citywide average. For a programmatic workflow, the cleanest approach is to poll the Weather Underground history page for RKSI, normalise to Celsius, and map the day’s maximum into the market’s settlement bands before the window closes.

A 2% yes price implies the crowd sees an extreme threshold as very unlikely, which is consistent with Seoul’s June climatology: average daily highs typically sit in the high 20s Celsius and rise gradually through the month, while exceptionally hot days are uncommon but not impossible.[2] Recent comparable weather markets on Seoul have still been priced as low-probability events even when the underlying forecast leaned warm, because settlement depends on the single highest observed temperature at the airport rather than a forecast city high.[1][5] For traders using bots or conditional orders, the useful read is not “will it be hot?” but “is there a realistic path to the specific range needed for YES?”

The main catalysts are the short-range forecast, any heat-advisory language from the Korea Meteorological Administration, and whether local conditions at Incheon differ from central Seoul because of coastal moderation or sea-breeze effects. A warm spell is more relevant if it arrives with clear skies and weak wind, since those are the ingredients that can push the afternoon maximum up quickly; by contrast, cloud cover or rain suppresses the top reading. Programmatically, the practical dependency is simple: watch the hourly forecast into the morning and reprice only if the expected peak moves into the settlement band, since the market can no longer resolve after the 12:00 UTC cut-off.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket App UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket App UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket App UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket App UK?

Zero. Polymarket App UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.