Highest temperature in Seoul on June 24?

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Market context

The underlying event is the peak daytime temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport on 24 June 2026, which will determine the settlement of this prediction market. Historical June baselines for Seoul average near 27°C, with daily highs typically rising from 77°F to 81°F and rarely exceeding 87°F [2]. Recent data shows the highest temperature in the region reached 91°F on 19 June 2026, while the lowest was 58.2°F on 9 June 2026 [3]. Given that the current crowd-implied probability for a specific outcome is 0% YES, a power-user would programmatically query Wunderground’s historical API for the Incheon station to validate whether the market’s pricing aligns with these established thermal ranges [1].

Traders should monitor the seasonal increase in shortwave solar energy, which gradually decreases by 0.5 kWh throughout June, potentially moderating peak temperatures [2]. The primary catalyst is the regional heat trend, as South Korea recently endured record-breaking summer heat with average temperatures 2.9°C above the 1991–2020 baseline [7]. A systematic approach would involve setting conditional orders based on real-time Wunderground feeds for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, specifically tracking the daily high temperature available via the station’s history page [1]. This utility-focused strategy allows users to bypass manual checks and automate position adjustments as the settlement window closes on 2026-06-24T12:00:00Z.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket App UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket App UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket App UK?

Zero. Polymarket App UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.