Highest temperature in Seoul on June 26?

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Market context

The real-world event hinges on the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport on 26 June 2026, a metric that will determine the market’s resolution range. Long-term averages for Seoul in June suggest daytime maximums of 26°C, with temperatures typically ranging between 19°C and 28°C and moderate humidity as the monsoon season begins to encroach[1][2]. Historical data from early June 2026 shows a peak of 34.0°C on 19 June, indicating that extreme heat is possible even before the official rainy season fully settles in[9]. Given this variability, the current crowd-implied probability of 0% YES appears overly cautious, as it ignores the documented capacity for temperatures to exceed typical averages during late June.

A power-user approaching this market programmatically would monitor real-time Wunderground feeds for Incheon Airport, cross-referencing with Korea Meteorological Administration short-range forecasts for temperature spikes and rainfall onset[4]. Key catalysts include the timing of the monsoon front, which usually arrives between late June and mid-July, and any sudden shifts in humidity that could suppress or elevate temperatures[2]. Recent travel forecasts note that humid afternoons and possible rainy days are expected, which could either dampen peak heat or create volatile microclimates[5]. Traders should watch for updates from AccuWeather’s daily high projections, which currently range from 84°F to 92°F (29°C to 33°C), suggesting a non-zero chance of exceeding standard thresholds[3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket App UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket App UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket App UK?

Zero. Polymarket App UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket App UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.