Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 20?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Shanghai’s temperature at Pudong airport is being set by the day’s maximum reading at Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, with settlement based on the Wunderground history page for 20 June. In practice, the key number is the highest logged Celsius temperature before the window closes, so a programme watching this market would poll the station’s daily history or equivalent feed, normalise the unit to °C, and map the result into the market’s settlement bands.

The current 0% implied YES price is not unusual for a narrow weather range market when the outcome is already approaching or when the path is dominated by a single observed value. June climatology at Pudong is already warm: WeatherSpark puts average daily highs in June around 77°F to 83°F, with the hot season starting in mid-June, and airport climate guides note that summer highs in Shanghai commonly exceed 30°C, sometimes reaching 35°C.[2][5][9] For a power-user, that means the market is largely a question of whether the observed peak lands inside the specified band rather than whether it becomes meaningfully hot.

The main catalysts are the forecast evolution for Shanghai and any short-lived convective rain or cloud cover that trims the afternoon maximum. BBC Weather currently shows light rain and a high of 31°C for Shanghai Hongqiao on Saturday, which is a useful regional proxy for how much daytime heating may be suppressed, while AccuWeather’s live conditions for Pudong show very warm, humid air already in place.[1][4] A bot or conditional-order workflow would watch the station-specific observation chain, the timing of the day’s highest reading, and whether the airport report updates before settlement, since the final print matters more than intraday swings.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 20? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket App UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket App UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket App UK?

Zero. Polymarket App UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket App UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.