Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 23?

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Market context

On 23 June 2026, the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station will record its peak temperature for the day, a metric that directly determines the outcome of this prediction market. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for the highest temperature falling in the lowest range suggests traders are confident conditions will not be unusually cool, aligning with the onset of the region’s hot season. Historical data confirms that the hot season at Pudong begins around 17 June and lasts until mid-September, with average daily highs consistently exceeding 80°F (27°C) [3]. Recent June forecasts for 2026 indicate daily highs ranging from 77°F to 96°F (25°C to 36°C), with overnight lows between 68°F and 79°F (20°C to 26°C) [4]. This climatic baseline makes a sub-20°C peak temperature highly improbable, validating the market’s current pricing.

A programmatic trader approaching this market would monitor real-time weather feeds from Wunderground, the official resolution source, to detect any sudden shifts in temperature trends before the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 23 June [1]. Key catalysts include the intensity of the light rain and heavy rain forecast for Hongqiao, which may influence cloud cover and temperature suppression at Pudong, though local microclimates often differ [2]. Traders should also watch for scheduled meteorological updates from the National Weather Service, which reported light showers and temperatures of 73°F to 75°F (23°C to 24°C) in the early hours of 23 June [1]. While no specific weather announcements are imminent, the dependency on accurate hourly data from Wunderground remains critical, as any discrepancy could alter the final resolution range. The market’s utility lies in its direct linkage to verifiable, real-time environmental data, offering a clear test of predictive accuracy for power-users evaluating conditional order strategies.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket App UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket App UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.