Highest temperature in Singapore on July 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event at hand is the measurement of the peak air temperature recorded at Singapore Changi Airport on 1 July 2026, resolved in degrees Celsius via Wunderground data. This specific metric determines the outcome of a prediction market where the crowd currently assigns a 0% probability to the "YES" outcome, despite climatological norms strongly suggesting a high temperature near 31°C or 32°C. The market heavily favours 32°C, which holds a 44.5% probability, with 31°C at 31.5%, reflecting the ongoing Southwest Monsoon season that typically stabilises temperatures in this range.

Historical data frames this current probability as an anomaly, given that July in Singapore consistently sees average highs of 31°C and lows of 25°C, with heat indices hovering around 41.5°C. Recent records show Singapore hit a 40-year high of 37°C, yet the current market pricing of 0% for the primary outcome ignores these established baselines. A power-user approaching this programmatically would note that the settlement window ends 2026-07-01T12:00:00Z, requiring an automated script to fetch the daily maximum from the specified Wunderground URL immediately after the cutoff to verify the resolution source.

Traders must monitor the Southwest Monsoon schedule and any sudden thunderstorm announcements, as these are the primary catalysts that could depress temperatures below the 31°C threshold. The BBC Weather service currently reports hazy conditions at Changi with a temperature of 28°C and southerly winds, indicating the immediate atmospheric state. While the forecast for July 2026 predicts daily highs between 85°F and 90°F, the 0% crowd-implied probability suggests a potential mispricing that a conditional order strategy could exploit if the resolution data confirms a standard high of 32°C.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Singapore on July 1? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket App UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.