Highest temperature in Seoul on June 23?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying event is the peak daily temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport on 23 June 2026, measured in degrees Celsius. This specific metric determines the settlement of the prediction market, with data sourced directly from Wunderground’s historical archive for the Incheon station. A power-user evaluating this tooling would approach the market programmatically, setting up automated scrapers to pull real-time Wunderground data and cross-reference it against the predefined resolution thresholds before the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC.

Historical patterns frame the current 0% probability as a statistically sound assessment rather than an outlier. Average June highs in Seoul climb from 77°F to 81°F, rarely exceeding 87°F (approximately 30.6°C), while the all-time national record sits at 41.0°C in Hongcheon, a town distinct from the airport station[1][3]. Recent data confirms this trend, with the highest temperature recorded in Seoul during the current period reaching 91°F (32.8°C) on 19 June 2026, well below the ranges that would trigger a positive settlement[4]. The accelerating trend of heat wave days noted by the Korea Meteorological Administration further supports the view that extreme peaks are becoming more frequent, yet the airport’s specific location typically buffers against the highest inland spikes[2].

Traders should monitor daily weather bulletins and the Korea Meteorological Administration’s heat wave forecasts for the coming days, as these serve as the primary catalysts for temperature spikes. A recent report from Gwangju News highlights that the three hottest summers on record (1994, 2018, 2024) each broke the previous record, indicating a clear trajectory of intensifying extreme events[2]. Programmatic strategies must integrate these schedule dependencies, adjusting conditional orders based on the forecasted solar energy levels, which are gradually decreasing in June and may limit peak temperature potential[1]. The settlement relies entirely on the Wunderground feed, making the integrity of that data stream the critical dependency for any automated trading bot.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Seoul on June 23? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket App UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket App UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket App UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket App UK?

Zero. Polymarket App UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.